Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
LONDON KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KNOXVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE
REMAINING CINH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40KT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT
LINES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 439 SEVERE TSTM KY NC TN VA 171655Z - 180000Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40N LOZ/LONDON KY/ - 55SSE TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /38N LOZ - 28NW ODF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 37638206 35068168 35068556 37638608
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 439 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 439
VALID 172025Z - 172140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175
..SPC..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...GSP...MRX...OHX...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-013-021-025-045-051-053-057-065-071-079-087-095-109-119-
121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-155-167-169-171-189-193-195-
199-203-207-217-229-231-235-237-172140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
FLOYD GARRARD GREEN
HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN
MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN
MARION MERCER METCALFE
MONROE OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
NCC011-021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-115-121-173-175-199-
172140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AVERY BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE
CLAY GRAHAM HAYWOOD
HENDERSON JACKSON MACON
MADISON MITCHELL SWAIN
TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-027-029-035-041-049-057-059-061-
063-065-067-073-087-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-133-137-
139-141-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-175-177-179-185-
172140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CARTER
CLAIBORNE CLAY COCKE
CUMBERLAND DEKALB FENTRESS
GRAINGER GREENE GRUNDY
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE SCOTT
SEQUATCHIE SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION VAN BUREN
WARREN WASHINGTON WHITE
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-172140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 439
VALID 171930Z - 172040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...GSP...MRX...OHX...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-013-021-025-045-051-053-057-065-071-079-087-095-109-119-
121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-155-167-169-171-189-193-195-
199-203-207-217-229-231-235-237-172040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
FLOYD GARRARD GREEN
HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN
MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN
MARION MERCER METCALFE
MONROE OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
NCC011-021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-115-121-173-175-199-
172040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AVERY BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE
CLAY GRAHAM HAYWOOD
HENDERSON JACKSON MACON
MADISON MITCHELL SWAIN
TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-027-029-035-041-049-057-059-061-
063-065-067-073-087-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-133-137-
139-141-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-175-177-179-185-
172040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CARTER
CLAIBORNE CLAY COCKE
CUMBERLAND DEKALB FENTRESS
GRAINGER GREENE GRUNDY
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE SCOTT
SEQUATCHIE SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION VAN BUREN
WARREN WASHINGTON WHITE
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-172040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 439
VALID 171840Z - 171940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...GSP...MRX...OHX...RLX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-013-021-025-045-051-053-057-065-071-079-087-095-109-119-
121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-155-167-169-171-189-193-195-
199-203-207-217-229-231-235-237-171940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLAY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
FLOYD GARRARD GREEN
HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN
MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN
MARION MERCER METCALFE
MONROE OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
$$
NCC011-021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-115-121-173-175-199-
171940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AVERY BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE
CLAY GRAHAM HAYWOOD
HENDERSON JACKSON MACON
MADISON MITCHELL SWAIN
TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-027-029-035-041-049-057-059-061-
063-065-067-073-087-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-133-137-
139-141-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-175-177-179-185-
171940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CARTER
CLAIBORNE CLAY COCKE
CUMBERLAND DEKALB FENTRESS
GRAINGER GREENE GRUNDY
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HAWKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE SCOTT
SEQUATCHIE SEVIER SULLIVAN
UNICOI UNION VAN BUREN
WARREN WASHINGTON WHITE
$$
VAC027-051-105-167-169-191-195-520-720-171940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN DICKENSON LEE
RUSSELL SCOTT WASHINGTON
WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.