Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...
DISCUSSION...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AOA 4000 J/KG
SPREADING NWD WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATCH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH INITIALLY WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE
HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 440 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 171755Z - 180200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
70E SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/ - 50WSW EAR/KEARNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /46SSW DSM - 36ENE MCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 39799408 39509987 41389987 41689408
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 440 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 440
VALID 180135Z - 180200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 440 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-029-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-180200-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION
$$
KSC089-147-183-180200-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL PHILLIPS SMITH
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-
093-099-109-121-125-129-131-137-143-153-155-159-163-169-175-181-
185-180200-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HOWARD KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
OTOE PHELPS POLK
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 440
VALID 180050Z - 180140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW LWD
TO 30 WSW LNK TO 20 W CNK.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-029-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-180140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION
$$
KSC089-147-183-180140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL PHILLIPS SMITH
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-
093-099-109-121-125-129-131-137-143-153-155-159-163-169-175-181-
185-180140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HOWARD KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
OTOE PHELPS POLK
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY
WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 440
VALID 172250Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-029-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-172340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION
$$
KSC005-013-043-089-117-131-147-157-183-201-172340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
JEWELL MARSHALL NEMAHA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-021-063-075-087-147-227-172340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DEKALB GENTRY HOLT
NODAWAY WORTH
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-067-073-077-079-081-
083-093-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-143-147-151-
153-155-159-163-169-175-181-185-172340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
PHELPS POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 440
VALID 172025Z - 172140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-029-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-172140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION
$$
KSC005-013-043-089-117-131-147-157-183-201-172140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
JEWELL MARSHALL NEMAHA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-021-063-075-087-147-227-172140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DEKALB GENTRY HOLT
NODAWAY WORTH
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-067-073-077-079-081-
083-093-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-143-147-151-
153-155-159-163-169-175-181-185-172140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
PHELPS POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 440
VALID 171930Z - 172040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-029-071-129-137-145-155-159-173-175-172040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS CASS
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION
$$
KSC005-013-043-089-117-131-147-157-183-201-172040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN DONIPHAN
JEWELL MARSHALL NEMAHA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC SMITH
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-021-063-075-087-147-227-172040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BUCHANAN
DEKALB GENTRY HOLT
NODAWAY WORTH
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-067-073-077-079-081-
083-093-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-143-147-151-
153-155-159-163-169-175-181-185-172040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
PHELPS POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.