Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 445...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IL
WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG/.
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED...SPLITTING STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS THE WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31030.
...PETERS/HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 444 SEVERE TSTM IN KY TN 172035Z - 180200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW HOP/FORT CAMPBELL KY/ - 30ESE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /48SSW PXV - 26ESE BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31030.
LAT...LON 38348812 37958591 35638591 36028812
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 444 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 444
VALID 180145Z - 180240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW EVV TO
20 ESE OWB TO 5 ENE BWG TO 50 WSW CSV.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC031-033-047-055-107-141-149-177-183-213-219-221-227-233-
180240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CALDWELL CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN HOPKINS LOGAN
MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO
SIMPSON TODD TRIGG
WARREN WEBSTER
$$
TNC015-021-037-043-083-125-147-149-161-165-187-189-180240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HOUSTON MONTGOMERY
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD STEWART
SUMNER WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 444
VALID 180055Z - 180140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW EVV TO
20 ESE OWB TO 5 ENE BWG TO 45 ESE BNA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
..SMITH..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC031-033-047-055-107-141-149-177-183-213-219-221-227-233-
180140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CALDWELL CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN HOPKINS LOGAN
MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO
SIMPSON TODD TRIGG
WARREN WEBSTER
$$
TNC015-021-037-043-083-125-147-149-161-165-187-189-180140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HOUSTON MONTGOMERY
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD STEWART
SUMNER WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 444
VALID 172135Z - 172240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC123-129-147-163-173-172240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PERRY POSEY SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK
$$
KYC003-009-027-029-031-033-047-055-059-061-085-091-093-099-101-
107-123-141-149-163-177-179-183-213-219-221-225-227-233-
172240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE
BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL
CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS
EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK
HARDIN HART HENDERSON
HOPKINS LARUE LOGAN
MCLEAN MEADE MUHLENBERG
NELSON OHIO SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG UNION
WARREN WEBSTER
$$
TNC015-021-037-043-083-111-125-147-149-159-161-165-169-187-189-
172240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HOUSTON MACON
MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.