Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT COLLINS COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROKEN BOW
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VICINITY DEN ENEWD ACROSS WATCH
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN SWRN NEB. WITH A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 445 TORNADO CO KS NE WY 172030Z - 180400Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10WNW FCL/FORT COLLINS CO/ - 50SSE BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM N/S /47SSW CYS - 56SW OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 41950519 42209926 39319926 39060519
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 445 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 445
VALID 180325Z - 180400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LIC
TO 10 SE FCL TO 40 ESE CYS TO 5 ENE TOR.
WW 445 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-180400-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-180400-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-180400-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 445
VALID 180220Z - 180340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CYS
TO 40 ESE CYS TO 5 E TOR.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-063-069-073-075-087-095-115-
121-123-125-180340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON KIT CARSON
LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-181-193-180340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-180340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 445
VALID 180145Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-063-069-073-075-087-095-115-
121-123-125-180240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON KIT CARSON
LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-181-193-180240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-180240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 445
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CYS TO
30 ESE CYS TO 10 E TOR.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-063-069-073-075-087-095-115-
121-123-125-180140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON KIT CARSON
LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-181-193-180140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-180140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 445
VALID 172250Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-063-069-073-075-087-095-115-
121-123-125-172340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON KIT CARSON
LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-181-193-172340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-172340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
WYC015-021-031-172340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 445
VALID 172135Z - 172240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-063-069-073-075-087-095-115-
121-123-125-172240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON KIT CARSON
LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-137-153-181-193-172240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-041-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-113-
117-123-135-145-157-172240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
WYC015-021-031-172240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.