Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
HUTCHINSON KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 445...WW 444...
DISCUSSION...E OF DRYLINE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH CHARACTERIZED BY
DEEP MIXED LAYER/INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000
J/KG. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AS THUNDERSTORM INCREASE
ACROSS AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 446 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 172055Z - 180400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSW AMA/AMARILLO TX/ - 35WNW HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /36SSW AMA - 52NW ICT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 34750309 38259966 38259726 34750080
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 446 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 446
VALID 180330Z - 180400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 446 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-180400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-180400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 446
VALID 180225Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-180340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 446
VALID 180150Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-180240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-180240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 446
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-057-097-119-145-151-185-180140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FORD KIOWA
MEADE PAWNEE PRATT
STAFFORD
$$
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-180140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-180140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 446
VALID 172245Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-057-097-119-145-151-185-172340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FORD KIOWA
MEADE PAWNEE PRATT
STAFFORD
$$
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-172340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-172340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 446
VALID 172135Z - 172240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-057-097-119-145-151-185-172240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FORD KIOWA
MEADE PAWNEE PRATT
STAFFORD
$$
OKC007-045-059-129-151-153-172240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
ROGER MILLS WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-483-172240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.