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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 445...WW 444...WW 446...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO THE
WATCH AREA FROM THE W/SW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE N OF A NWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NEB...WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR...BUT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS...THUS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT. AS A FEW STORM MERGERS OCCUR...THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 447 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 172320Z - 180600Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45WNW ONL/ONEILL NE/ - 30SE SPW/SPENCER IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /23ENE ANW - 25NW FOD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 43869950 44029473 41709473 41569950
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 447 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 447
VALID 180415Z - 180540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-009-015-021-025-027-029-035-041-047-049-059-063-073-077-
079-083-085-093-119-121-133-141-143-147-149-151-153-161-165-167-
169-181-187-193-180540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDUBON BOONE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DALLAS DICKINSON
EMMET GREENE GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON
IDA LYON MADISON
MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS
POLK SAC SHELBY
SIOUX STORY WARREN
WEBSTER WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-133-180540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-011-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-107-119-139-141-167-173-
177-179-180540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
PLATTE STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
SDC009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-
180540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 447
VALID 180330Z - 180440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-009-015-021-025-027-029-035-041-047-049-059-063-073-077-
079-083-085-093-119-121-133-141-143-147-149-151-153-161-165-167-
169-181-187-193-180440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDUBON BOONE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DALLAS DICKINSON
EMMET GREENE GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON
IDA LYON MADISON
MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS
POLK SAC SHELBY
SIOUX STORY WARREN
WEBSTER WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-133-180440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-009-011-015-017-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-071-089-103-
107-115-119-139-141-149-167-173-177-179-183-180440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
KNOX LOUP MADISON
PIERCE PLATTE ROCK
STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-
180440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 447
VALID 180230Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-093-119-133-
141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-193-180340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
IDA LYON MONONA
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC
SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-133-180340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-009-011-015-017-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-071-089-103-
107-115-119-139-141-149-167-173-177-179-183-180340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
KNOX LOUP MADISON
PIERCE PLATTE ROCK
STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-
180340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 447
VALID 180150Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-093-119-133-
141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-193-180240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
IDA LYON MONONA
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC
SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-133-180240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-009-011-015-017-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-071-089-103-
107-115-119-139-141-149-167-173-177-179-183-180240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
KNOX LOUP MADISON
PIERCE PLATTE ROCK
STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-
180240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 447
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-093-119-133-
141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-193-180140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
IDA LYON MONONA
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC
SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-101-105-133-180140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY
NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-009-011-015-017-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-071-089-103-
107-115-119-139-141-149-167-173-177-179-183-180140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
KNOX LOUP MADISON
PIERCE PLATTE ROCK
STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-
180140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.