Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 445...WW 444...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...
DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS S/SE MN
INTO NRN IA...ALONG AND S OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE
WAVE IN SRN MN. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER THIS AREA IS AOA 50
KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY FAVORS DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA
200 M2/S2 WILL FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 449 TORNADO IA MN 180000Z - 180600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15WSW FRM/FAIRMONT MN/ - 25S LSE/LA CROSSE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /57SSE RWF - 25SSE ODI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 44439469 44389125 42659125 42709469
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 449 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 449
VALID 180420Z - 180540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-033-037-043-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-189-
191-195-197-180540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147-
157-161-165-169-180540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
OLMSTED RICE STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN
WINONA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 449
VALID 180335Z - 180440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-033-037-043-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-189-
191-195-197-180440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147-
157-161-165-169-180440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
OLMSTED RICE STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN
WINONA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 449
VALID 180230Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-033-037-043-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-189-
191-195-197-180340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147-
157-161-165-169-180340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
OLMSTED RICE STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN
WINONA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 449
VALID 180155Z - 180240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-033-037-043-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-189-
191-195-197-180240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147-
157-161-165-169-180240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
OLMSTED RICE STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN
WINONA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 449
VALID 180040Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-033-037-043-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-189-
191-195-197-180140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147-
157-161-165-169-180140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
OLMSTED RICE STEELE
WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN
WINONA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.