Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FARMINGTON
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 440...WW 441...WW
442...WW 443...WW 445...WW 444...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...WW
449...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MISSOURI -- WITHIN WW 443...AND ARE MOVING INCREASINGLY-SEWD
WITH TIME. AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...EXPECT
SEWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE...AND
VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO CONTINUE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE WITH
TIME...SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS AND DEVELOP A
WELL-ORGANIZED/SEWD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31035.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 450 TORNADO MO 180010Z - 180700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50N SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/ - 15ESE FAM/FARMINGTON MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /35N SGF - 3ENE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31035.
LAT...LON 38669337 38409018 36959018 37229337
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 450 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 450
VALID 180420Z - 180540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POF
TO 25 E JEF.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC055-071-093-099-123-179-186-187-221-180540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 450
VALID 180340Z - 180440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POF
TO 25 E JEF.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC055-071-093-099-123-179-186-187-221-180440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 450
VALID 180235Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC015-029-055-065-071-093-099-105-123-125-131-141-161-169-179-
186-187-203-215-221-229-180340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CRAWFORD
DENT FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE MADISON
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON
TEXAS WASHINGTON WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 450
VALID 180200Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC015-029-055-065-071-093-099-105-123-125-131-141-161-169-179-
183-186-187-189-203-215-219-221-229-510-180340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CRAWFORD
DENT FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE MADISON
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 450
VALID 180040Z - 180140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC015-029-055-065-071-093-099-105-123-125-131-141-161-169-179-
183-186-187-189-203-215-219-221-229-510-180140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CRAWFORD
DENT FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE MADISON
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.