Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 440. WATCH NUMBER 440 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
905 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 443...WW 445...WW 446...WW
447...WW 448...WW 449...WW 450...WW 451...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEB. GIVEN FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AN
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING
EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28530.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 452 TORNADO IA NE 180205Z - 180800Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15W EAR/KEARNEY NE/ - 10ENE SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /58SW OBH - 31SE OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28530.
REPLACES WW 440..IA KS MO NE
LAT...LON 41529929 41599523 40009523 39919929
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 452 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 452
VALID 180425Z - 180540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNK
TO 15 N OLU.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-180540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
$$
NEC023-025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-159-
180540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CASS DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 452
VALID 180345Z - 180440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-180440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-047-055-059-061-065-067-073-077-079-081-
083-093-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-143-147-151-
153-155-159-163-169-175-181-185-180440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY DAWSON
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
PHELPS POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
