Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1055 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF AUGUSTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 441. WATCH NUMBER 441 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1055 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 443...WW 445...WW
446...WW 447...WW 448...WW 449...WW 450...WW 451...WW 452...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SSEWD ALONG AND W OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING STORMS /DESPITE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/...AND DEEP LAYER NWLY SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOW
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 453 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 180255Z - 180700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NW AND/ANDERSON SC/ - 40WSW AGS/AUGUSTA GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /22NNW ODF - 41SSW IRQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
REPLACES WW 441..GA NC SC
LAT...LON 35048216 33138140 33138381 35048465
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 453 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 453
VALID 180425Z - 180540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CHA TO
10 SE AND TO 30 SSE SPA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC011-013-033-059-073-085-105-111-117-119-123-133-135-137-139-
147-157-181-187-189-195-211-217-219-221-245-247-257-265-291-297-
301-311-317-180540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS BARROW BURKE
CLARKE COLUMBIA DAWSON
ELBERT FANNIN FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GILMER GREENE
GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL
HART JACKSON LINCOLN
LUMPKIN MCDUFFIE MADISON
MORGAN NEWTON OCONEE
OGLETHORPE RICHMOND ROCKDALE
STEPHENS TALIAFERRO UNION
WALTON WARREN WHITE
WILKES
$$
SCC001-003-011-037-047-065-081-180540-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE AIKEN BARNWELL
EDGEFIELD GREENWOOD MCCORMICK
SALUDA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 453
VALID 180345Z - 180440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE TYS
TO 25 SSE SPA.
..GARNER..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC011-013-033-059-073-085-105-111-117-119-123-133-135-137-139-
147-157-181-187-189-195-211-217-219-221-241-245-247-257-265-281-
291-297-301-311-317-180440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANKS BARROW BURKE
CLARKE COLUMBIA DAWSON
ELBERT FANNIN FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GILMER GREENE
GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL
HART JACKSON LINCOLN
LUMPKIN MCDUFFIE MADISON
MORGAN NEWTON OCONEE
OGLETHORPE RABUN RICHMOND
ROCKDALE STEPHENS TALIAFERRO
TOWNS UNION WALTON
WARREN WHITE WILKES
$$
SCC001-003-007-011-037-047-059-065-073-081-180440-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE AIKEN ANDERSON
BARNWELL EDGEFIELD GREENWOOD
LAURENS MCCORMICK OCONEE
SALUDA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.