Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457...WW 458...
DISCUSSION...MATURE BOW ECHO TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL IL IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND TRACK INTO SOUTHERN IND AND
CENTRAL KY. STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT
AND SHOW CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 459 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 181130Z - 181700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
25SE SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/ - 50WSW HUF/TERRE HAUTE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /13SE LOU - 46SE DEC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31040.
LAT...LON 36998591 38248869 40098765 38848487
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 459 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 459
VALID 181550Z - 181640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S OWB TO
45 E OWB TO 10 SSE SDF TO 30 ENE SDF.
..MEAD..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC027-029-031-061-085-087-093-099-123-179-183-211-215-181640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN
HARDIN HART LARUE
NELSON OHIO SHELBY
SPENCER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 459
VALID 181335Z - 181440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-185-191-193-181440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
$$
INC005-013-019-021-025-027-031-037-043-051-055-061-063-071-077-
079-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-143-
145-147-153-163-165-167-173-175-181440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK
CLAY CRAWFORD DAVIESS
DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD
GIBSON GREENE HARRISON
HENDRICKS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX
LAWRENCE MARION MARTIN
MONROE MORGAN ORANGE
OWEN PARKE PERRY
PIKE POSEY PUTNAM
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH VERMILLION
VIGO WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-029-031-059-061-085-087-091-093-099-101-103-107-111-123-
149-163-177-179-183-185-211-215-223-225-233-181440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON
GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN
HART HENDERSON HENRY
HOPKINS JEFFERSON LARUE
MCLEAN MEADE MUHLENBERG
NELSON OHIO OLDHAM
SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE
UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 459
VALID 181250Z - 181340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
..CARBIN..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-185-191-193-181340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
$$
INC005-013-019-021-025-027-031-037-043-051-055-061-063-071-077-
079-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-143-
145-147-153-163-165-167-173-175-181340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK
CLAY CRAWFORD DAVIESS
DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD
GIBSON GREENE HARRISON
HENDRICKS JACKSON JEFFERSON
JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX
LAWRENCE MARION MARTIN
MONROE MORGAN ORANGE
OWEN PARKE PERRY
PIKE POSEY PUTNAM
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
SULLIVAN VANDERBURGH VERMILLION
VIGO WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-029-031-059-061-085-087-091-093-099-101-103-107-111-123-
149-163-177-179-183-185-211-215-223-225-233-181340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON
GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN
HART HENDERSON HENRY
HOPKINS JEFFERSON LARUE
MCLEAN MEADE MUHLENBERG
NELSON OHIO OLDHAM
SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE
UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.