Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 435 AM UNTIL 1100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD COLORADO TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS OVER THIS REGION...W OF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS ELUCIDATED IN MORE
DETAIL IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...EDWARDS/CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 459 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 051035Z - 051700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WSW SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/ - 45NNE LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /25ESE TBE - 40NNE LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
LAT...LON 37110420 41720151 41729918 37110202
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 459 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 459
VALID 051635Z - 051700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S BBW TO
25 N MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 20 NE GLD TO 25 SSE GLD TO 45 S GLD TO
40 WNW GCK.
WW 459 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 051700Z.
..IMY..06/05/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-027-061-063-071-073-089-095-099-101-115-121-
125-051700-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY CUSTER KIOWA
KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS
PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-199-051700-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON
MORTON SHERMAN STANTON
WALLACE
$$
NEC005-029-057-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-051700-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE DUNDY
HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 459
VALID 051550Z - 051640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..IMY..06/05/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-073-089-095-099-101-115-121-125-
051640-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO
PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-071-075-109-129-153-179-181-187-193-199-203-051640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY
HAMILTON LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-
145-051640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 459
VALID 051435Z - 051540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/05/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-027-055-061-063-071-073-089-095-099-101-115-
121-125-051540-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY CUSTER HUERFANO
KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-071-075-109-129-153-179-181-187-193-199-203-051540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY
HAMILTON LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-
145-051540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 459
VALID 051335Z - 051440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/05/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-027-055-061-063-071-073-089-095-099-101-115-
121-125-051440-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY CUSTER HUERFANO
KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-071-075-109-129-153-179-181-187-193-199-203-051440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY
HAMILTON LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-
145-051440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 459
VALID 051125Z - 051240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219.
..EDWARDS..06/05/08
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-027-055-061-063-071-073-089-095-099-101-115-
121-125-051240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY CUSTER HUERFANO
KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS
LINCOLN OTERO PHILLIPS
PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-071-075-109-129-153-179-181-187-193-199-203-051240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY
HAMILTON LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC005-029-041-047-057-063-065-073-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-
145-051240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER
DAWSON DUNDY FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.