Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN IOWA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF FORT DODGE IOWA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457...WW 458...WW 459...
DISCUSSION...MATURE MCS/BOW MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 50KT INTO NWRN
IA ATTM. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT WARM/MOIST AIR STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON
50-60KT LLJ...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NRN IA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 460 SEVERE TSTM IA 181200Z - 181600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WNW FOD/FORT DODGE IA/ - 25NE ALO/WATERLOO IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /25WNW FOD - 59ESE MCW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.
LAT...LON 43479483 43529205 42089205 42029483
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 460 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 460
VALID 181335Z - 181440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-017-023-025-033-037-063-067-069-075-079-081-083-089-091-
109-127-131-147-151-169-171-187-189-195-197-181440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW
EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN
GRUNDY HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MARSHALL MITCHELL
PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS STORY
TAMA WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WORTH WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 460
VALID 181250Z - 181340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CARBIN..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-017-023-025-033-037-063-067-069-075-079-081-083-089-091-
109-127-131-147-151-169-171-187-189-195-197-181340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW
EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN
GRUNDY HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MARSHALL MITCHELL
PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS STORY
TAMA WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WORTH WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.