Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461...WW 462...WW
463...WW 464...
DISCUSSION...AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE
AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 465 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 181850Z - 190200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10E BRD/BRAINERD MN/ - 45WSW MBG/MOBRIDGE SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /5ENE BRD - 22ENE DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
LAT...LON 45389391 44250129 46290129 47409391
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 465 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 465
VALID 190145Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HON
TO 5 SW VVV TO 40 ESE VVV.
..GOSS..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...DLH...MPX...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC073-173-190240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAC QUI PARLE YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC025-029-039-051-057-190240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CODINGTON DEUEL
GRANT HAMLIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 465
VALID 190140Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HON
TO 5 SSW VVV TO 40 ESE VVV.
..GOSS..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...DLH...MPX...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-027-051-057-073-111-155-159-167-173-190240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CLAY
GRANT HUBBARD LAC QUI PARLE
OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WADENA
WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-190240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
SDC013-025-029-037-039-049-051-057-059-065-069-091-109-115-119-
190240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLARK CODINGTON
DAY DEUEL FAULK
GRANT HAMLIN HAND
HUGHES HYDE MARSHALL
ROBERTS SPINK SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 465
VALID 182135Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...DLH...MPX...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-021-023-027-035-041-051-057-067-073-093-097-111-121-
145-149-151-153-155-159-167-173-182240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CASS
CHIPPEWA CLAY CROW WING
DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD
KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER
MORRISON OTTER TAIL POPE
STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT
TODD TRAVERSE WADENA
WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NDC017-021-029-045-051-073-077-081-182240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DICKEY EMMONS
LAMOURE MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
SDC013-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
089-091-107-109-115-119-129-182240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CLARK
CODINGTON CORSON DAY
DEUEL DEWEY EDMUNDS
FAULK GRANT HAMLIN
HAND HUGHES HYDE
MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER
ROBERTS SPINK SULLY
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 465
VALID 182040Z - 182140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...DLH...MPX...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-021-023-027-035-041-051-057-067-073-093-097-111-121-
145-149-151-153-155-159-167-173-182140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CASS
CHIPPEWA CLAY CROW WING
DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD
KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER
MORRISON OTTER TAIL POPE
STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT
TODD TRAVERSE WADENA
WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NDC017-021-029-045-051-073-077-081-182140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DICKEY EMMONS
LAMOURE MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
SDC013-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
089-091-107-109-115-119-129-182140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CLARK
CODINGTON CORSON DAY
DEUEL DEWEY EDMUNDS
FAULK GRANT HAMLIN
HAND HUGHES HYDE
MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER
ROBERTS SPINK SULLY
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 465
VALID 181945Z - 182040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/18/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...DLH...MPX...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-021-023-027-035-041-051-057-067-073-093-097-111-121-
145-149-151-153-155-159-167-173-182040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CASS
CHIPPEWA CLAY CROW WING
DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD
KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MEEKER
MORRISON OTTER TAIL POPE
STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT
TODD TRAVERSE WADENA
WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
NDC017-021-029-045-051-073-077-081-182040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DICKEY EMMONS
LAMOURE MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
SDC013-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
089-091-107-109-115-119-129-182040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CLARK
CODINGTON CORSON DAY
DEUEL DEWEY EDMUNDS
FAULK GRANT HAMLIN
HAND HUGHES HYDE
MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER
ROBERTS SPINK SULLY
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.