Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 625 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...WW 464...WW
465...WW 466...WW 467...WW 468...
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD
ACROSS SC WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. FARTHER W...MORE SCATTERED STORMS
HAVE FORMED IN THE HOT/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL GA. VERY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S IN ADVANCE OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE
MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORM CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 469 SEVERE TSTM GA SC CW 182225Z - 190400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW MCN/MACON GA/ - 25SE CHS/CHARLESTON SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /30WSW MCN - 22SE CHS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
LAT...LON 33658419 33797973 31487973 31358419
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 469 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 469
VALID 190225Z - 190340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ABY TO
30 ENE AYS TO 30 ENE AYS.
..SMITH..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC047-079-121-190340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON MADISON SUWANNEE
$$
GAC019-027-065-071-075-101-173-185-299-190340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BROOKS CLINCH
COLQUITT COOK ECHOLS
LANIER LOWNDES WARE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 469
VALID 190145Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N ABY TO
15 NNE AYS TO 15 W SAV TO 50 ENE SSI.
..SMITH..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC047-079-121-190240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAMILTON MADISON SUWANNEE
$$
GAC003-005-019-027-029-065-069-071-075-095-101-155-173-179-183-
185-191-229-277-299-305-321-190240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN
BROOKS BRYAN CLINCH
COFFEE COLQUITT COOK
DOUGHERTY ECHOLS IRWIN
LANIER LIBERTY LONG
LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE
TIFT WARE WAYNE
WORTH
$$
AMZ354-190240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 469
VALID 190040Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ABY TO
25 NNW VDI TO 35 SW FLO.
..SMITH..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC001-003-005-017-019-029-031-043-051-069-081-091-093-095-103-
107-109-155-161-175-177-179-183-191-209-229-235-251-267-271-277-
279-283-287-299-305-309-315-321-190140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BEN HILL BERRIEN BRYAN
BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM
COFFEE CRISP DODGE
DOOLY DOUGHERTY EFFINGHAM
EMANUEL EVANS IRWIN
JEFF DAVIS LAURENS LEE
LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH
MONTGOMERY PIERCE PULASKI
SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR
TIFT TOOMBS TREUTLEN
TURNER WARE WAYNE
WHEELER WILCOX WORTH
$$
SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-190140-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY
CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER
HAMPTON JASPER
$$
AMZ330-350-352-354-190140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.