Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VALPARAISO INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 470...WW 471...WW 472...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SRN WI WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR IS
MAINTAINED FROM THE W/SW ON A 35 KT LLJ. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SW LOWER MI SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS. THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE GREATER FROM SE WI
INTO NE IL AND NW INDIANA...ESPECIALLY IF STORM MERGERS LEAD TO
UPSCALE GROWTH OF A COLD POOL AND MORE SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE
CLUSTER.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 473 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI WI LM 190430Z - 191200Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60N MKE/MILWAUKEE WI/ - 15SW VPZ/VALPARAISO IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /45NNE BAE - 45N BVT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 43798569 41278508 41278931 43799011
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 473 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 473
VALID 191045Z - 191140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VPZ TO
30 WNW BEH TO 20 W AZO TO 15 E AZO.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-091-099-113-131-141-149-151-191140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NOBLE PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-191140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-191140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 473
VALID 190845Z - 190940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW JVL
TO 25 SSE RAC TO 35 WNW BEH TO 20 W AZO TO 10 SE GRR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-141-197-201-
190940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE COOK DEKALB
DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE
KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY
OGLE WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
INC033-039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149-
151-190940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-077-149-159-190940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-876-878-
190940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 473
VALID 190745Z - 190840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W JVL TO
35 SSW MKG TO 35 SSW MBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-015-031-037-043-063-085-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-141-
177-197-201-190840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL COOK
DEKALB DUPAGE GRUNDY
JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
STEPHENSON WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
INC033-039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149-
151-190840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON
JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN
$$
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-077-081-121-123-127-139-149-159-
190840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
KALAMAZOO KENT MUSKEGON
NEWAYGO OCEANA OTTAWA
ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
WIC059-101-127-190840-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENOSHA RACINE WALWORTH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-646-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-
846-847-848-870-872-874-876-878-190840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.