Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 210 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF OTTUMWA IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472...WW
473...WW 474...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAWN
TODAY FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA...IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW
LVL WAA DOWNSTREAM FROM CO UPR VORT. ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MAY MERGE
INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED
BOWS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND. TORNADO
POTENTIAL ATTM APPEARS LOW...WITH ANY SUCH THREAT LIKELY TIED TO
BOW/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 475 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 190710Z - 191500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15S OLU/COLUMBUS NE/ - 30N OTM/OTTUMWA IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /46E OBH - 38W IOW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 42099734 42409244 40669244 40369734
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 475 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 475
VALID 191330Z - 191440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SDA
TO 35 NE SDA TO 50 NE SDA TO 50 SE DNS TO 30 W DSM TO 35 NW DSM
TO 30 NE DSM TO 45 WSW ALO TO 15 SW ALO.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-013-039-049-051-053-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-
153-157-159-171-173-175-179-181-185-191440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
BLACK HAWK CLARKE DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 475
VALID 191210Z - 191340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SDA
TO 45 W DSM TO 25 S ALO.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-013-039-049-051-053-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-
153-157-159-171-173-175-179-181-185-191340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
BLACK HAWK CLARKE DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 475
VALID 191040Z - 191140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LNK
TO 20 ESE SUX.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-
073-075-077-079-083-085-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-
145-153-155-157-159-161-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-
191140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE
CALHOUN CARROLL CASS
CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MILLS MONONA MONROE
MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC SHELBY STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
WEBSTER
$$
MOC005-147-227-191140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON NODAWAY WORTH
$$
NEC021-023-025-053-055-067-097-109-127-131-151-153-155-159-177-
191140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT BUTLER CASS
DODGE DOUGLAS GAGE
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE SALINE SARPY
SAUNDERS SEWARD WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 475
VALID 190845Z - 190940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-
073-075-077-079-083-085-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-
145-153-155-157-159-161-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-
190940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE
CALHOUN CARROLL CASS
CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER LUCAS MADISON
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MILLS MONONA MONROE
MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC SHELBY STORY
TAMA TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE
WEBSTER
$$
MOC005-147-227-190940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON NODAWAY WORTH
$$
NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-067-097-109-127-131-151-153-155-
159-167-173-177-190940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT BUTLER CASS
COLFAX CUMING DODGE
DOUGLAS GAGE JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
