Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 415 AM UNTIL NOON EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472...WW
473...WW 474...WW 475...
DISCUSSION...FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOW MCS NOW CROSSING SW LWR MI/NW
IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST S OF E AT ABOUT 30-35 KTS. SYSTEM MAY
ACCELERATE A BIT AS IT INGESTS WARM FRONTAL STORMS FORMING OVER NE
IND/NW OH. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF THESE STORMS REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE...AREA VWPS SHOW 30-40 KT WLY LLJ ACROSS IL/IND
THAT WILL DESTABILIZE LAYER JUST OFF THE SFC AND MAY SUPPORT A SVR
RISK EWD INTO CNTRL OH TOWARD MID MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY RISK
WILL EXIST FOR A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG
WARM FRONT...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT
A TORNADO WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 476 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE 190815Z - 191600Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25WNW JXN/JACKSON MI/ - 25SSE DAY/DAYTON OH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /34SE GRR - 43S ROD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 42388316 39548234 39548573 42388669
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 476 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 476
VALID 191330Z - 191440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S MIE TO
20 SSE MIE TO 35 WNW DAY TO 25 SE FWA TO 25 SSW FDY TO 15 NW FDY
TO 20 NE FDY TO 25 ESE TOL TO 50 NNW MFD.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC041-161-177-191440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE UNION WAYNE
$$
OHC011-021-023-033-037-041-045-047-049-057-063-065-089-091-097-
101-107-109-113-117-129-135-143-147-149-159-175-191440-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK
CRAWFORD DARKE DELAWARE
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HANCOCK HARDIN
LICKING LOGAN MADISON
MARION MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY MORROW PICKAWAY
PREBLE SANDUSKY SENECA
SHELBY UNION WYANDOT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 476
VALID 191210Z - 191340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IND
TO 25 SE FWA TO 35 NNW MFD.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC041-161-177-191340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE UNION WAYNE
$$
OHC011-021-023-033-037-041-045-047-049-057-063-065-089-091-097-
101-107-109-113-117-129-135-143-147-149-159-175-191340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK
CRAWFORD DARKE DELAWARE
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HANCOCK HARDIN
LICKING LOGAN MADISON
MARION MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY MORROW PICKAWAY
PREBLE SANDUSKY SENECA
SHELBY UNION WYANDOT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 476
VALID 191050Z - 191140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW JXN
TO 35 SE DTW.
..GUYER..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-017-035-041-053-057-065-067-069-075-095-103-135-
159-161-169-177-179-183-191140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
CASS DELAWARE FAYETTE
GRANT HAMILTON HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
MADISON MIAMI RANDOLPH
TIPTON UNION WABASH
WAYNE WELLS WHITLEY
$$
MIC059-191140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HILLSDALE
$$
OHC003-011-021-023-033-037-039-041-045-047-049-051-057-063-065-
069-089-091-095-097-101-107-109-113-117-123-125-129-135-137-143-
147-149-159-161-171-173-175-191140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN
CLARK CRAWFORD DARKE
DEFIANCE DELAWARE FAIRFIELD
FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HARDIN
HENRY LICKING LOGAN
LUCAS MADISON MARION
MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY
MORROW OTTAWA PAULDING
PICKAWAY PREBLE PUTNAM
SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY
UNION VAN WERT WILLIAMS
WOOD WYANDOT
$$
LEZ142-143-191140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.