Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 715 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 475...WW 476...
DISCUSSION...E CNTRL IA STORM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
ENE INTO WRN IL...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM IN ITS VICINITY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING...AND ATOP OUTFLOW LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCS IN NRN
IL. AREA WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. EXACT NATURE OF
STORM INTERACTION WITH/DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN IL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. BUT A NON-ZERO THREAT COULD DEVELOP FOR LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OCCURS IN WAKE OF GUST FRONT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 477 SEVERE TSTM IA IL WI LM 191215Z - 192000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30SW CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/ - 20S CGX/MEIGS FIELD IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /24W IOW - 27SSE ORD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 42439212 42458762 40708762 40709212
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 477 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 477
VALID 191745Z - 191840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...ARX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-085-089-091-093-
095-097-099-103-105-111-123-131-141-143-155-161-175-177-187-195-
197-201-203-191840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DEKALB DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON
HENRY IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY
MARSHALL MERCER OGLE
PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-139-163-177-183-191840-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
LMZ740-741-742-191840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 477
VALID 191640Z - 191740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...ARX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-085-089-091-093-
095-097-099-103-105-111-123-131-141-143-155-161-175-177-187-195-
197-201-203-191740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DEKALB DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON
HENRY IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY
MARSHALL MERCER OGLE
PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-139-163-177-183-191740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
WIC059-101-191740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENOSHA RACINE
$$
LMZ646-675-740-741-742-191740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 477
VALID 191430Z - 191540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...ARX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-085-089-091-093-
095-097-099-103-105-111-123-131-141-143-155-161-175-177-187-195-
197-201-203-191540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DEKALB DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON
HENRY IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY
MARSHALL MERCER OGLE
PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-139-163-177-183-191540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
WIC043-045-065-105-127-191540-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT GREEN LAFAYETTE
ROCK WALWORTH
$$
LMZ740-741-742-191540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 477
VALID 191335Z - 191440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...ARX...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-053-063-071-073-075-085-089-091-093-
095-097-099-103-105-111-123-131-141-143-155-161-175-177-187-195-
197-201-203-191440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DEKALB DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY HENDERSON
HENRY IROQUOIS JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY
MARSHALL MERCER OGLE
PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-
113-115-139-163-177-183-191440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LEE
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
WIC043-045-065-105-127-191440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT GREEN LAFAYETTE
ROCK WALWORTH
$$
LMZ740-741-742-191440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.