Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477...
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE PROPAGATING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS
THE CHI ARE...AND NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL IL. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
NRN/CNTRL INDIANA IS DESTABILIZING AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT WITH
40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 478 TORNADO IN MI LM 191550Z - 192300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WSW VPZ/VALPARAISO IN/ - 25SE FWA/FORT WAYNE IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /42ESE JOT - 22SE FWA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 42548744 41958483 39498483 40088744
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 478 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 478
VALID 192030Z - 192140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-
059-063-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-103-107-
111-113-127-131-135-141-149-151-157-159-169-171-179-181-183-
192140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLINTON DE KALB
DELAWARE ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JASPER
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEWTON NOBLE
PORTER PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON WABASH
WARREN WELLS WHITE
WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-192140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-743-744-745-777-779-844-878-192140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 478
VALID 191940Z - 192040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-
059-063-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-103-107-
111-113-127-131-135-141-149-151-157-159-169-171-179-181-183-
192040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLINTON DE KALB
DELAWARE ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JASPER
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEWTON NOBLE
PORTER PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON WABASH
WARREN WELLS WHITE
WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-192040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-743-744-745-777-779-844-878-192040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 478
VALID 191745Z - 191840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-
059-063-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-103-107-
111-113-127-131-135-141-149-151-157-159-169-171-179-181-183-
191840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLINTON DE KALB
DELAWARE ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JASPER
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEWTON NOBLE
PORTER PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON WABASH
WARREN WELLS WHITE
WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-191840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-743-744-745-777-779-844-878-191840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 478
VALID 191645Z - 191740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/19/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...IND...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-023-033-035-039-045-049-053-057-
059-063-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-103-107-
111-113-127-131-135-141-149-151-157-159-169-171-179-181-183-
191740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BENTON
BLACKFORD BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLINTON DE KALB
DELAWARE ELKHART FOUNTAIN
FULTON GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JASPER
JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
LAKE LA PORTE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEWTON NOBLE
PORTER PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON WABASH
WARREN WELLS WHITE
WHITLEY
$$
MIC021-023-027-149-191740-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
ST. JOSEPH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-743-744-745-777-779-844-878-191740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.