Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 235 AM UNTIL 800 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WI/IL UPR TROUGH HAS
ACCELERATED ESE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND OVERTAKEN EXISTING
SW-NE CONFLUENCE BAND AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SOME INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. 40-50 KT MEAN LOW
TO MID LVL UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ON S SIDE OF TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER FRONTAL ZONE AND MAINTAIN THREAT FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS...DESPITE TIME OF DAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 28040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 485 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 200635Z - 201200Z
AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60ENE SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/ - 20SW MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM N/S /31S CVG - 59ENE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28040.
LAT...LON 38008469 37618912 38618912 39008469
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 485 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 485
VALID 200945Z - 201040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SDF TO
20 NNE SDF TO 35 N LEX.
..GUYER..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC005-029-073-093-111-179-211-215-239-201040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BULLITT FRANKLIN
HARDIN JEFFERSON NELSON
SHELBY SPENCER WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 485
VALID 200835Z - 200940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OWB TO
40 SSW BMG TO 15 SW LUK.
..GUYER..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC025-037-043-061-123-200940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD
HARRISON PERRY
$$
KYC005-027-029-073-091-093-111-163-179-211-215-239-200940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
FRANKLIN HANCOCK HARDIN
JEFFERSON MEADE NELSON
SHELBY SPENCER WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 485
VALID 200725Z - 200840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...IND...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-055-059-065-081-165-185-191-193-199-200840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON JEFFERSON SALINE
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC025-027-037-043-051-061-071-083-093-101-123-125-129-147-163-
173-200840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE
MARTIN PERRY PIKE
POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH
WARRICK
$$
KYC005-027-029-059-073-091-093-101-111-163-179-211-215-225-239-
200840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
DAVIESS FRANKLIN HANCOCK
HARDIN HENDERSON JEFFERSON
MEADE NELSON SHELBY
SPENCER UNION WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.