Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OF PATUXENT RIVER
MARYLAND TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM
EXTREME SERN PA SWD INTO EAST CENTRAL VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
AIR MASS HAS WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE AREA TO THE IMMEDIATE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S.
WIND PROFILES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT AND 40-50 KT WNWLY FLOW
ABOVE 2-3 KM IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL AS
150-300 MS/S2 LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 486 TORNADO DE MD VA CW 201905Z - 210000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
60S NHK/PATUXENT RIVER MD/ - 40NNW DOV/DOVER DE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /33NNW ORF - 55S ETX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 37667765 39917702 39387448 37137519
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 486 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 486
VALID 202330Z - 210000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF TO
50 SSE WAL TO 25 E WAL TO 15 ESE SBY TO 30 SE DOV TO 45 S ACY.
WW 486 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210000Z.
..SMITH..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ANZ454-455-650-654-210000-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 486
VALID 202230Z - 202340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ORF
TO 15 NE SBY TO 10 SW DOV TO 20 S ACY.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR ONCE THIS
HAPPENS. WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.
..SMITH..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-202340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
$$
MDC047-202340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WORCESTER
$$
VAC131-202340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NORTHAMPTON
$$
ANZ431-454-455-650-652-654-202340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 486
VALID 202025Z - 202140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW RIC TO
10 NNE DCA TO 25 S CXY.
..MEAD..06/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-202140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-029-035-037-039-041-045-047-
510-202140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES
DORCHESTER HARFORD KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET
TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
VAC001-033-057-073-097-099-101-103-115-119-131-133-159-193-
202140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK CAROLINE ESSEX
GLOUCESTER KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER MATHEWS
MIDDLESEX NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
RICHMOND WESTMORELAND
$$
ANZ430-431-454-455-530-531-532-533-534-537-630-631-650-652-654-
202140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.