Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 755 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALINA
KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCV AND AN ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS
INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THE STORMS ON THE E FLANK OF THE
CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. DESPITE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES COULD SUSTAIN A TORNADO
AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 487 TORNADO KS 210055Z - 210400Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SW SLN/SALINA KS/ - 25SE MHK/MANHATTAN KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /25SSW SLN - 60E SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
LAT...LON 39159791 39459633 38299633 38009791
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 487 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 487
VALID 210345Z - 210400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EMP TO
40 WNW EMP TO 25 NW MHK.
WW 487 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210400Z. IF DESIRED...WW 487
CAN BE EXTENDED EAST A COUPLE COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 487
..DIAL..06/21/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC061-127-161-210400-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEARY MORRIS RILEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 487
VALID 210240Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E HUT TO
20 SE SLN TO 15 W SLN.
..DIAL..06/21/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC017-027-041-061-115-127-143-161-210340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE CLAY DICKINSON
GEARY MARION MORRIS
OTTAWA RILEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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