Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY LATE TODAY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS
IA. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVOLUTION INTO SMALL BOW ECHOES.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES
WITH ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 488 TORNADO IA MN 212030Z - 220300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW OTG/WORTHINGTON MN/ - 30NE CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /38SE FSD - 29WSW DBQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 44009627 43049130 41319130 42279627
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 488 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 488
VALID 220245Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE OTM
TO 20 ENE ALO TO 20 E MCW TO 25 W MKT.
PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES...PORTIONS OF WW FROM SRN MN
THROUGH E CNTRL AND SE IA WILL BE EXTENDED TIL 04Z.
..DIAL..06/22/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC011-019-031-037-055-065-067-089-095-103-105-107-113-115-131-
139-183-220340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CHICKASAW DELAWARE FAYETTE
FLOYD HOWARD IOWA
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LINN LOUISA MITCHELL
MUSCATINE WASHINGTON
$$
MNC013-039-043-047-099-147-161-220340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT
FREEBORN MOWER STEELE
WASECA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 488
VALID 220140Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DSM
TO 35 NNE FOD TO 20 WNW FRM.
..DIAL..06/22/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC011-013-017-019-023-031-033-037-055-065-067-069-075-079-081-
083-089-095-103-105-107-109-113-115-127-131-139-157-169-171-183-
189-195-197-220240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER
BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW DELAWARE
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GRUNDY HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HOWARD IOWA
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
KOSSUTH LINN LOUISA
MARSHALL MITCHELL MUSCATINE
POWESHIEK STORY TAMA
WASHINGTON WINNEBAGO WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-047-079-091-099-103-131-147-161-165-220240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FREEBORN LE SUEUR
MARTIN MOWER NICOLLET
RICE STEELE WASECA
WATONWAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 488
VALID 220000Z - 220140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SUX
TO 30 SSW OTG TO 15 NNE OTG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
..DIAL..06/21/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-037-041-055-
059-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-091-093-095-103-105-109-
113-127-131-141-143-147-149-151-157-161-169-171-187-189-193-195-
197-220140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE
BREMER BUCHANAN BUENA VISTA
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CEDAR CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE
CHICKASAW CLAY DELAWARE
DICKINSON EMMET FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE
GRUNDY HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HUMBOLDT IDA
IOWA JOHNSON JONES
KOSSUTH LINN MARSHALL
MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS
POWESHIEK SAC STORY
TAMA WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC043-047-063-091-220140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FARIBAULT FREEBORN JACKSON
MARTIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.