Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WW AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 492 SEVERE TSTM ND 222005Z - 230200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N MOT/MINOT ND/ - 60SSE DIK/DICKINSON ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /44N MOT - 55SSE DIK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
LAT...LON 48979930 45970044 45970419 48970326
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 492 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 492
VALID 230045Z - 230140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MBG TO
40 SW N60 TO 55 NNW MOT.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-029-043-049-055-057-059-065-069-075-079-083-101-103-
230140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS
KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN WARD WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 492
VALID 222340Z - 230040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW Y22
TO 55 ESE ISN TO 60 NW MOT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
..DIAL..06/22/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-029-037-043-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-083-
085-101-103-230040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS
GRANT KIDDER MCHENRY
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
SIOUX WARD WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 492
VALID 222230Z - 222340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W Y22 TO
20 SSW DIK TO 40 SSE SDY.
..DIAL..06/22/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-013-015-023-025-029-037-041-043-049-053-055-057-
059-061-065-069-075-079-083-085-089-101-103-105-222340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BURKE BURLEIGH DIVIDE
DUNN EMMONS GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER MCHENRY
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX STARK
WARD WELLS WILLIAMS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
