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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF OCALA
FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH FROM W
CNTRL FL SSE INTO S FL LATER THIS MORNING AS SFC HEATING
DESTABILIZES AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO PENINSULA. HI
PWS...MODERATE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NLY FLOW...AND MODEST DEEP ASCENT
OVER REGION /PER WV IMAGERY/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS YIELDING WET
MICROBURTS. A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO NEAR STORM MERGERS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 35025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 495 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 231130Z - 231900Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
55W OCF/OCALA FL/ - 50S MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /26S CTY - 43S MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35025.
LAT...LON 29628238 25547955 24618098 28708387
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 495 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 495
VALID 231735Z - 231840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW VRB
TO 55 SSE AGR TO 35 W MIA TO 10 NW MTH.
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-071-075-081-087-093-
101-103-105-115-119-231840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH LEE LEVY
MANATEE MONROE OKEECHOBEE
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER
$$
GMZ031-656-657-830-850-853-856-231840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 495
VALID 231615Z - 231740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW VRB
TO 55 SSE AGR TO 35 W MIA TO 35 N MTH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-071-075-081-087-093-
101-103-105-115-119-231740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH LEE LEVY
MANATEE MONROE OKEECHOBEE
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER
$$
GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-231740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 495
VALID 231525Z - 231640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW VRB
TO 55 WNW PBI TO 35 W MIA TO 40 N MTH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-071-075-081-087-093-
101-103-105-115-119-231640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH LEE LEVY
MANATEE MONROE OKEECHOBEE
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER
$$
GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-231640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 495
VALID 231445Z - 231540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-071-075-081-086-
087-093-099-101-103-105-115-119-231540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LEE
LEVY MANATEE MIAMI-DADE
MONROE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER
$$
AMZ610-630-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-231540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 495
VALID 231400Z - 231540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-071-075-081-086-
087-093-099-101-103-105-115-119-231540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LEE
LEVY MANATEE MIAMI-DADE
MONROE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER
$$
AMZ610-630-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-231540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.