Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494...WW 495...
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
ENE...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON S EDGE TOWARD AXIS OF VERY
STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OVER NE NEB/NW IA. MODEST...DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR...AND CONTINUED ESELY NEAR-SFC FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT MCS
MAINTENANCE...WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 496 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 231305Z - 232100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW BKX/BROOKINGS SD/ - 35ESE OFK/NORFOLK NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /49NNW FSD - 60NW OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 44439541 41779525 41779834 44439866
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 496 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 496
VALID 231445Z - 231540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-231540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY
$$
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-231540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN
LYON MURRAY NOBLES
PIPESTONE ROCK
$$
NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-231540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BURT CEDAR
CUMING DAKOTA DIXON
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
STANTON THURSTON WAYNE
$$
SDC003-005-009-011-023-027-035-043-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-
097-099-101-111-125-127-135-231540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BROOKINGS CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS HANSON
HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY
LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK
MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY
SANBORN TURNER UNION
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.