Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HALLOCK
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 495...WW 496...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG AN ARCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN...WHILE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER NERN ND. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL
WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE...AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 497 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 231600Z - 232300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30SW BRD/BRAINERD MN/ - 30ENE HCO/HALLOCK MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /27SW BRD - 67NNE GFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 46089613 48909798 48909468 46089301
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 497 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 497
VALID 232240Z - 232300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BRD
TO 25 N DTL TO 30 WNW BJI TO 50 NW INL.
WW 497 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 232300Z.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-007-021-029-035-057-061-071-097-232300-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BELTRAMI CASS
CLEARWATER CROW WING HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING MORRISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 497
VALID 232155Z - 232240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DTL
TO 30 W BJI TO 45 E RRT.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-029-035-041-051-057-061-071-087-097-153-159-
167-232240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING
DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN
MORRISON TODD WADENA
WILKIN
$$
NDC077-081-232240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 497
VALID 232045Z - 232140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FAR TO 35 SE
TVF TO 25 SSE RRT TO 15 ENE RRT.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-041-051-057-061-071-077-087-097-
153-159-167-232140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT
HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MORRISON
TODD WADENA WILKIN
$$
NDC073-077-081-232140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 497
VALID 231945Z - 232040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW FAR TO
20 ESE TVF TO 10 NNW RRT.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-041-051-057-061-071-077-087-097-
107-153-159-167-232040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT
HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MORRISON
NORMAN TODD WADENA
WILKIN
$$
NDC073-077-081-232040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 497
VALID 231830Z - 231940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW AXN
TO 30 W BJI TO 20 S ROX TO 20 WNW ROX.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-029-035-041-057-061-071-077-097-135-153-159-
231940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLEARWATER CROW WING
DOUGLAS HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MORRISON
ROSEAU TODD WADENA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 497
VALID 231750Z - 231840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FAR TO
30 SSW TVF TO 15 S HCO TO 25 NW HCO.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-041-057-061-069-071-077-087-089-
097-107-111-113-119-125-135-153-159-167-231840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING DOUGLAS HUBBARD
ITASCA KITTSON KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL
PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU TODD WADENA
WILKIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.