Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
SPENCER IOWA TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 495...WW 496...WW 497...
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD AT 35-40 KT ALONG
COMMON OUTFLOW INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS WW.
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD
POOL INTENSIFIES...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 498 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 231700Z - 232300Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10W SPW/SPENCER IA/ - 55NE ALO/WATERLOO IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /57NW FOD - 49S ODI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 44339534 44279162 41959162 42009534
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 498 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 498
VALID 232245Z - 232300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DNS TO
25 SE ALO TO 45 SSW LSE.
WW 498 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 232300Z.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC015-027-047-065-073-127-169-171-232300-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD
FAYETTE GREENE MARSHALL
STORY TAMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 498
VALID 232145Z - 232240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNS
TO 25 SW ALO TO 10 E RST TO 35 NE RST.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-015-017-027-037-047-065-073-089-127-169-171-191-232240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER
CARROLL CHICKASAW CRAWFORD
FAYETTE GREENE HOWARD
MARSHALL STORY TAMA
WINNESHIEK
$$
MNC045-232240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 498
VALID 232040Z - 232140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNS
TO 20 SE FOD TO 40 S MCW TO 5 NNW MCW TO 40 WSW RST TO 30 NNW RST.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-015-017-023-027-033-037-047-065-067-069-073-075-079-083-
089-127-131-169-171-191-195-232140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER
BUTLER CARROLL CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CRAWFORD FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE
GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN
HOWARD MARSHALL MITCHELL
STORY TAMA WINNESHIEK
WORTH
$$
MNC039-045-099-109-232140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE MOWER
OLMSTED
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 498
VALID 231955Z - 232040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW SLB TO
35 N FOD TO 20 S MKT TO 10 NE MKT.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-015-017-023-025-027-033-037-047-065-067-069-073-075-079-
081-083-089-091-109-127-131-151-161-169-171-187-189-191-195-197-
232040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CRAWFORD
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY HAMILTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HOWARD
HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH MARSHALL
MITCHELL POCAHONTAS SAC
STORY TAMA WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
MNC037-039-043-045-047-049-079-099-109-131-139-147-161-232040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT
FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE
LE SUEUR MOWER OLMSTED
RICE SCOTT STEELE
WASECA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 498
VALID 231825Z - 231940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEISS..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC013-015-017-023-025-027-033-037-047-063-065-067-069-073-075-
079-081-083-089-091-109-127-131-147-151-161-169-171-187-189-191-
195-197-231940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CRAWFORD
EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH
MARSHALL MITCHELL PALO ALTO
POCAHONTAS SAC STORY
TAMA WEBSTER WINNEBAGO
WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT
$$
MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-079-091-099-103-109-127-131-147-
161-165-231940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE LE SUEUR MARTIN
MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED
REDWOOD RICE STEELE
WASECA WATONWAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.