Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
OCALA FLORIDA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 495. WATCH NUMBER 495 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 235 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 496...WW 497...WW
498...
DISCUSSION...SEASONABLY STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE NERN
FL COAST. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...DESPITE EARLIER LINEAR
MCS...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF SUPERCELL OR TWO. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 499 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 231835Z - 240100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NE OCF/OCALA FL/ - 55S MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /46W OMN - 48S MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33030.
REPLACES WW 495..FL CW
LAT...LON 29378098 25007931 25008123 29378298
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 499 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 499
VALID 232300Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE OCF
TO 15 S MLB TO 45 NW MIA TO 30 SW PBI TO 15 N PBI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
..SMITH..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-069-071-075-
081-086-087-093-095-097-101-103-105-115-117-119-240040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE LEE LEVY
MANATEE MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER
$$
AMZ630-650-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 499
VALID 232140Z - 232240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE OCF
TO 5 NNE VRB.
..SMITH..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-232240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER
$$
AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-
232240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 499
VALID 232030Z - 232140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-127-232140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-
232140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 499
VALID 231945Z - 232040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX...KEY...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-
075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-
119-127-232040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
LEVY MANATEE MARION
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-052-656-657-830-850-853-856-
232040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.