Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD
FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KENNEDY WISCONSIN TO 20 MILES NORTH OF ELY MINNESOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...WW 499...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NRN
PLAINS. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 500 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 231930Z - 240100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60SW ASX/KENNEDY WI/ - 20N ELO/ELY MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /55SSE DLH - 65ESE INL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 45919305 48189316 48189056 45919055
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 500 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 500
VALID 240050Z - 240100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BRD TO
40 E BFW.
WW 500 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240100Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC115-240100-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PINE
$$
WIC003-007-013-031-113-129-240100-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
LSZ121-145-146-147-148-240100-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 500
VALID 232330Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW DLH
TO 10 ENE DLH TO 20 N ELO.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC017-031-075-115-240040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLTON COOK LAKE
PINE
$$
WIC003-007-013-031-113-129-240040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT
DOUGLAS SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-162-240040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.