Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA
EASTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 25 MILES WEST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...WW
499...WW 500...
DISCUSSION...NARROW AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT STALLS FROM S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA. AIR MASS
IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE TO 5000 K/KG...WHICH SHOULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
ESEWD MOVING CLUSTERS SUSTAINING A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 501 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 232030Z - 240300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55ENE CID/CEDAR RAPIDS IA/ - 25W EAR/KEARNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /13S DBQ - 60ENE MCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 41599073 40139948 41299948 42759073
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 501 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 501
VALID 240225Z - 240300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BBW TO
15 E EAR TO 25 S HSI.
WW 501 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC019-047-073-099-137-240300-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO DAWSON GOSPER
KEARNEY PHELPS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 501
VALID 240145Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BBW TO
10 ENE EAR TO 15 SSW HSI TO 35 WSW LNK TO 15 NE LNK TO 20 SE OMA
TO 35 SSW DSM TO 35 SSW DSM.
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-071-129-137-159-173-240240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS FREMONT MILLS
MONTGOMERY RINGGOLD TAYLOR
$$
NEC019-025-047-073-099-109-131-137-151-240240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO CASS DAWSON
GOSPER KEARNEY LANCASTER
OTOE PHELPS SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 501
VALID 240110Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BBW TO
15 E EAR TO 20 SSW HSI TO 35 WSW LNK TO 25 S OLU TO 30 ENE OMA TO
50 NE SDA TO 30 S CID.
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-007-039-051-053-071-107-117-129-135-137-145-155-159-173-
175-179-183-185-240240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE
DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT
KEOKUK LUCAS MILLS
MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE
POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
NEC019-023-025-047-055-073-099-109-131-137-151-153-155-159-
240240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO BUTLER CASS
DAWSON DOUGLAS GOSPER
KEARNEY LANCASTER OTOE
PHELPS SALINE SARPY
SAUNDERS SEWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 501
VALID 232330Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE OXV
TO 30 NNE OTM TO 20 SE CID TO 5 SSE DBQ.
..DIAL..06/23/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-029-031-039-045-049-051-053-071-077-085-097-
099-107-117-121-123-125-129-135-137-139-145-153-155-159-163-165-
173-175-179-181-183-185-240040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON CASS CEDAR
CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS
DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT
GUTHRIE HARRISON JACKSON
JASPER KEOKUK LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MILLS MONROE MONTGOMERY
MUSCATINE PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SCOTT
SHELBY TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-037-047-053-055-059-073-077-079-081-093-
099-109-121-125-131-137-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-175-177-185-
240040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
DAWSON DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HOWARD
KEARNEY LANCASTER MERRICK
NANCE OTOE PHELPS
PLATTE POLK SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
SHERMAN VALLEY WASHINGTON
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.