Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LIMON COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...WW
499...WW 500...WW 501...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING AHEAD OF SUBTLE
IMPULSE ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD
FOSTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR
TWO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 232050Z - 240300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE TOR/TORRINGTON WY/ - 5SSW LIC/LIMON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /42NNW BFF - 57SE DEN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.
LAT...LON 42520270 39200258 39200483 42520506
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 502 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 502
VALID 240145Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LIC TO
50 ESE CYS TO 15 SSW CYS TO 20 NNW CYS TO 30 SE CDR.
..SMITH..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-121-240240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN WASHINGTON
$$
NEC007-013-033-105-123-157-240240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
WYC021-240240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.