Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498...WW
499...WW 500...WW 501...WW 502...
DISCUSSION...THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS S/SE IA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SEWD/SWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE CLUSTER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 503 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 232255Z - 240400Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45N STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 25E BRL/BURLINGTON IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /58SE OVR - 53WSW BDF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
LAT...LON 41229491 41589065 39979065 39639491
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 503 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 503
VALID 240230Z - 240340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE STJ
TO 15 NNW STJ TO 40 NNE STJ TO 30 SW LWD TO 20 NNE CDJ TO 25 E
CDJ TO 25 E UIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC003-007-019-025-027-061-063-075-079-113-117-137-139-163-173-
219-240340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW AUDRAIN BOONE
CALDWELL CALLAWAY DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
LINCOLN LIVINGSTON MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RALLS
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 503
VALID 240140Z - 240240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LWD TO
20 ESE LWD TO 20 ENE UIN.
..DIAL..06/24/09
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-240240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
$$
MOC001-003-005-007-019-025-027-061-063-075-079-081-087-103-111-
113-115-117-121-127-129-137-139-147-163-173-205-211-219-227-
240240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
AUDRAIN BOONE CALDWELL
CALLAWAY DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT KNOX LEWIS
LINCOLN LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MARION MERCER
MONROE MONTGOMERY NODAWAY
PIKE RALLS SHELBY
SULLIVAN WARREN WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.