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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
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WW0503 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   130 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     MUCH OF MINNESOTA
     EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
     EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
     800 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST
   OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD
   MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
   70-80KT MID LEVEL JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A COLD FRONT TRACKING
   EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN ND ATTM. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
   IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE
   WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   MN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
   WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
   SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 45KT. HAIL TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
   A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 29045.


   ...CARBIN
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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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