Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO PART OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE ESEWD INTO WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 508 SEVERE TSTM NY LE LO 251640Z - 260000Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ESE JHW/JAMESTOWN NY/ - 55NNE ART/WATERTOWN NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /31NW SLT - 35S YOW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 41888019 44727741 44727376 41887669
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 508 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 508
VALID 252240Z - 252340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BUF
TO 25 NE UCA.
..MEAD..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-037-051-053-055-063-
065-067-069-073-075-077-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-
252340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS
CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG
CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE
ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE NIAGARA
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
ORLEANS OSWEGO OTSEGO
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
PAC015-115-252340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD SUSQUEHANNA
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042-043-044-062-063-064-252340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 508
VALID 252140Z - 252240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-015-023-029-033-037-045-049-051-053-055-063-
065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-109-117-121-123-252240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CORTLAND
ERIE FRANKLIN GENESEE
JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE NIAGARA
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
ORLEANS OSWEGO ST. LAWRENCE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-252240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 508
VALID 251930Z - 252040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-015-023-029-033-037-045-049-051-053-055-063-
065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-109-117-121-123-252040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CORTLAND
ERIE FRANKLIN GENESEE
JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE NIAGARA
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
ORLEANS OSWEGO ST. LAWRENCE
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-252040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER
BUFFALO HARBOR AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.