Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 508...WW 509...WW 510...
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM CENTRAL CO INTO SERN WY...WITH STORMS
SHIFTING EWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL STORMS
LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS/LINES SHOULD OCCUR
WITH SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR...OVERALL THREATS
SHOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26015.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 511 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 251930Z - 260200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N TOR/TORRINGTON WY/ - 10SW LIC/LIMON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /65NNW BFF - 55SE DEN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26015.
LAT...LON 42840276 39150250 39150511 42840552
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 511 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 511
VALID 260120Z - 260200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 511 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 260200Z.
..GARNER..06/26/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-260200-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-260200-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-260200-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 511
VALID 260035Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
..GARNER..06/26/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-260140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-260140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-260140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 511
VALID 252325Z - 260040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-260040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-260040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-260040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 511
VALID 252240Z - 252340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
..GARNER..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-252340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-252340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-252340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 511
VALID 252135Z - 252240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/25/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-252240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-252240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-252240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.