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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF EAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 525...WW 526...WW
527...WW 528...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BAND ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN KS. AIR
MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY
DCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG FAVOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY
STRONG UPDRAFT. LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
PRIMARILY PULSE TYPE DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITIES SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 529 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 272255Z - 280400Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55SSW OJC/OLATHE KS/ - 30E UIN/QUINCY IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /31WSW BUM - 30ENE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 38849512 40669062 39229062 37389512
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 529 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JEF
TO 35 NE COU TO 40 SSW UIN TO 45 SE UIN.
..EDWARDS..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-135-163-280440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
MONTGOMERY ST. CLAIR
$$
MOC007-027-071-073-099-113-139-163-183-189-219-510-280440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN CALLAWAY FRANKLIN
GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MONTGOMERY PIKE ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS WARREN
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO
25 WNW SZL TO 30 NNW COU TO 40 ENE UIN.
..EDWARDS..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-117-149-280340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN PIKE
$$
KSC011-037-107-280340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN
$$
MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-039-051-053-073-083-085-089-101-113-
135-139-141-151-159-163-185-195-217-219-280340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARTON BATES
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CEDAR COLE COOPER
GASCONADE HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD JOHNSON LINCOLN
MONITEAU MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OSAGE PETTIS PIKE
ST. CLAIR SALINE VERNON
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO
30 S IRK TO 35 ESE BRL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363.
..EDWARDS..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-280240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
$$
KSC011-037-107-280240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN
$$
MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-039-051-053-083-085-089-101-103-111-
113-127-135-137-139-141-159-163-173-175-185-195-205-217-
280240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARTON BATES
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CEDAR COLE COOPER
HENRY HICKORY HOWARD
JOHNSON KNOX LEWIS
LINCOLN MARION MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
PETTIS PIKE RALLS
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHELBY VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 529
VALID 280055Z - 280140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO
25 E MKC TO 30 S IRK TO 25 SSW BRL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363.
..EDWARDS..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-280140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
$$
KSC011-037-107-121-280140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN
MIAMI
$$
MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-037-039-041-051-053-083-085-089-101-
103-107-111-113-121-127-135-137-139-141-159-163-173-175-185-195-
205-217-280140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARTON BATES
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CASS CEDAR CHARITON
COLE COOPER HENRY
HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARION
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN PETTIS PIKE
RALLS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SALINE SHELBY VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 529
VALID 272335Z - 280040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..06/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-149-280040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN PIKE
$$
KSC011-037-107-121-280040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN
MIAMI
$$
MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-037-039-041-051-053-083-085-089-101-
103-107-111-113-121-127-135-137-139-141-159-163-173-175-185-195-
205-217-280040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARTON BATES
BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY
CASS CEDAR CHARITON
COLE COOPER HENRY
HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON
KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARION
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN PETTIS PIKE
RALLS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SALINE SHELBY VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.