Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 530...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING
REPORTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 32020.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 531 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 281940Z - 290100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55NW TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/ - 35ENE JAX/JACKSONVILLE FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /41NW TLH - 29NE CRG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
LAT...LON 31968501 31708113 29688113 29958501
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 531 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 531
VALID 290040Z - 290100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW VDI
TO 5 NNE CTY.
WW 531 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290100Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
..GARNER..06/29/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-290100-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC039-059-063-065-067-073-079-123-290100-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON TAYLOR
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-290100-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 531
VALID 282330Z - 290040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW VDI
TO 20 ESE VLD TO 20 WNW JAX TO 30 ESE SSI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
..GARNER..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-290040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC003-007-019-023-031-039-047-059-063-065-067-073-079-089-109-
121-123-125-290040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL GADSDEN
HAMILTON HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON NASSAU ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-290040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
$$
AMZ452-290040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 531
VALID 282230Z - 282340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-282340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC003-007-019-023-031-039-047-059-063-065-067-073-079-089-109-
121-123-125-282340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL GADSDEN
HAMILTON HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON NASSAU ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071-
075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-
243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-282340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BRANTLEY BROOKS CALHOUN
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY
CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT
COOK DECATUR DOUGHERTY
EARLY ECHOLS GLYNN
GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LEE LOWNDES
MILLER MITCHELL PIERCE
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WARE WAYNE
WORTH
$$
AMZ450-452-282340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 531
VALID 282140Z - 282240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
..GARNER..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-282240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC003-007-019-023-031-039-047-059-063-065-067-073-079-089-109-
121-123-125-282240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL GADSDEN
HAMILTON HOLMES JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
MADISON NASSAU ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071-
075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-
243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-282240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BRANTLEY BROOKS CALHOUN
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY
CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT
COOK DECATUR DOUGHERTY
EARLY ECHOLS GLYNN
GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LEE LOWNDES
MILLER MITCHELL PIERCE
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WARE WAYNE
WORTH
$$
AMZ450-452-282240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 531
VALID 282030Z - 282140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..06/28/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-007-019-023-031-047-065-067-079-089-109-121-123-125-
282140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BRADFORD CLAY
COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON
NASSAU ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION
$$
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071-
075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239-
243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-282140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BRANTLEY BROOKS CALHOUN
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY
CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT
COOK DECATUR DOUGHERTY
EARLY ECHOLS GLYNN
GRADY IRWIN JEFF DAVIS
LANIER LEE LOWNDES
MILLER MITCHELL PIERCE
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WARE WAYNE
WORTH
$$
AMZ450-452-282140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.