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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 15 MILES EAST OF ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA...SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING OF CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F YIELDING SUFFICIENT CAPE VALUES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 533 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT 301540Z - 302300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N BTV/BURLINGTON VT/ - 15E ABE/ALLENTOWN PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /23NE PLB - 25E ETX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 44977162 40637370 40637656 44977468
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 533 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 533
VALID 302250Z - 302300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW JFK
TO 10 SW RUT TO 45 NNW BTV.
WW 533 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 302300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
..GARNER..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-302300-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-302300-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC019-021-027-031-033-083-115-302300-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
ESSEX FRANKLIN RENSSELAER
WASHINGTON
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-302300-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 533
VALID 302140Z - 302240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW EWR
TO 10 SSW GFL TO 10 ENE SLK TO 20 ENE MSS.
..GARNER..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-302240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-302240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-013-017-021-023-031-039-302240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON
MERCER MIDDLESEX PASSAIC
UNION
$$
NYC019-021-027-031-033-079-083-087-113-115-119-302240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
ESSEX FRANKLIN PUTNAM
RENSSELAER ROCKLAND WARREN
WASHINGTON WESTCHESTER
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-302240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 533
VALID 302030Z - 302140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N TTN TO
25 ENE MSV TO 25 SW ALB TO 20 SW GFL TO 20 SSE SLK TO 10 ENE MSS.
..IMY..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-302140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-302140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-013-017-021-023-027-031-035-039-302140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS
PASSAIC SOMERSET UNION
$$
NYC001-019-021-027-031-033-039-071-079-083-087-091-111-113-115-
119-302140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
GREENE ORANGE PUTNAM
RENSSELAER ROCKLAND SARATOGA
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-302140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 533
VALID 301945Z - 302040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ABE TO
15 NE MSV TO 30 WSW ALB TO 40 W GFL TO 20 S MSS.
..IMY..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-302040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-302040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-302040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
NYC001-019-021-027-031-033-039-041-071-079-083-087-091-093-095-
111-113-115-119-302040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
GREENE HAMILTON ORANGE
PUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLAND
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC017-045-077-091-095-101-302040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS DELAWARE LEHIGH
MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-302040-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 533
VALID 301845Z - 301940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CXY
TO 10 SSW AVP TO 25 WNW MSV TO 35 NNW MSV TO 35 SE UCA TO 20 ENE
UCA TO 40 N UCA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
..IMY..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-301940-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-301940-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-301940-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$
NYC001-019-021-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-071-079-083-
087-089-091-093-095-105-111-113-115-119-301940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DELAWARE DUTCHESS ESSEX
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY
ORANGE PUTNAM RENSSELAER
ROCKLAND ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-103-127-301940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKS CARBON
CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA PIKE WAYNE
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-301940-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 533
VALID 301730Z - 301840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..IMY..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BTV...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-301840-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-301840-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-013-017-019-027-031-035-037-039-041-301840-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON
HUNTERDON MORRIS PASSAIC
SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION
WARREN
$$
NYC001-019-021-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-071-077-079-
083-087-089-091-093-095-105-111-113-115-119-301840-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DELAWARE DUTCHESS ESSEX
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY
ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM
RENSSELAER ROCKLAND ST. LAWRENCE
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC025-069-077-079-089-095-103-115-127-131-301840-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARBON LACKAWANNA LEHIGH
LUZERNE MONROE NORTHAMPTON
PIKE SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE
WYOMING
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-301840-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.