Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER AR
ALONG WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXIST.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 534 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 301855Z - 010200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WSW CQB/CHANDLER OK/ - 55ENE PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /23NE OKC - 58ESE LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30020.
LAT...LON 36669723 35569104 33389104 34509723
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 534 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 534
VALID 010140Z - 010200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE TXK
TO 40 SW HOT TO 30 WSW HOT TO 15 SSW HOT TO 40 SE HOT TO 25 SW
PBF TO 15 N GLH.
EXCEPT FOR ANY LOCALLY EXTENDED COUNTIES...WW 534 WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 010200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-039-041-043-079-103-109-010200-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND DALLAS DESHA
DREW LINCOLN OUACHITA
PIKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 534
VALID 010025Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE OKC TO
15 WNW MKO TO 20 SSW FYV TO 25 SW FLP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-033-039-041-043-047-051-053-059-069-079-
085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-131-010140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND CRAWFORD
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN
LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SEBASTIAN
$$
OKC027-061-063-077-079-081-091-101-107-109-111-121-125-133-135-
010140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND HASKELL HUGHES
LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN
MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 534
VALID 302330Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CQB TO
30 SW FYV TO 25 E FYV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387.
..EDWARDS..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-
047-051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-101-103-105-109-
113-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-145-147-149-010040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC001-027-061-063-077-079-081-091-101-107-109-111-121-125-133-
135-010040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CLEVELAND HASKELL
HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 534
VALID 302245Z - 302340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE OKC
TO 25 SSW TUL TO 25 NNE MKO TO 15 NNE FYV.
..EDWARDS..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-
047-051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-101-103-105-109-
113-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-145-147-149-302340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC001-021-027-061-063-077-079-081-091-101-107-109-111-121-125-
133-135-145-302340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 534
VALID 302145Z - 302240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CQB TO
15 SSW TUL TO 25 SSE GMJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384.
..EDWARDS..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-
047-051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-101-103-105-109-
113-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-145-147-149-302240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC001-021-027-061-063-077-079-081-091-101-107-109-111-121-125-
133-135-145-302240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 534
VALID 302035Z - 302140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..IMY..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-
047-051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-101-103-105-109-
113-115-117-119-125-127-129-131-141-143-145-147-149-302140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BENTON BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
OKC001-021-027-061-063-077-079-081-091-101-107-109-111-121-125-
133-135-145-302140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND
HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.