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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NORTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...WW 534...
DISCUSSION...AREA OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STRADDLES ND/MT BORDER
SWD TO BLACK HILLS. WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS...PARTICULARLY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 535 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 302120Z - 010400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNW ISN/WILLISTON ND/ - 45SW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /52NNW ISN - 38SW RAP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 48970280 43580248 43580487 48970545
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 535 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 535
VALID 010330Z - 010440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE RAP TO
35 SSW 2WX TO 20 NW 2WX TO 25 NE 2WX TO 20 SW Y22.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC019-063-093-105-010440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE HARDING MEADE
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 535
VALID 010235Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RAP TO
40 SSW BHK TO 20 SE BHK TO 35 SW DIK TO 25 NNE DIK.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-010340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-025-041-087-089-010340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN DUNN
HETTINGER SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC019-063-093-105-010340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE HARDING MEADE
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 535
VALID 010145Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RAP
TO 30 NE RAP TO 40 SSE 2WX TO 45 ESE 4BQ TO 35 E MLS TO 25 S GDV
TO 30 N BHK TO 35 NW DIK TO 40 SE ISN TO 45 ESE ISN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-109-010240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-025-041-053-087-089-010240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN HETTINGER MCKENZIE
SLOPE STARK
$$
SDC019-047-063-081-093-103-105-113-010240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE FALL RIVER HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
PERKINS SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 535
VALID 010030Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CDR
TO 40 SSW RAP TO 35 WNW RAP TO 65 E GCC TO 35 E MLS TO 15 SE GDV
TO 5 ESE SDY TO 60 N ISN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390.
..EDWARDS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-083-109-010140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON RICHLAND
WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-023-025-041-053-087-089-105-010140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DIVIDE DUNN HETTINGER
MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK
WILLIAMS
$$
SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-103-105-113-010140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON PERKINS SHANNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 535
VALID 302335Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW RAP TO
50 W RAP TO 65 ENE GCC TO 35 E MLS TO 15 WSW GDV TO 5 WSW SDY TO
20 W ISN TO 65 NNW ISN.
..EDWARDS..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-021-025-079-083-109-010040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER DAWSON FALLON
PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-010040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY
HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE
STARK WILLIAMS
$$
SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-105-010040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
PERKINS
$$
WYC011-010040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 535
VALID 302250Z - 302340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE DGW TO
65 W RAP TO 50 E GCC TO 25 SE 4BQ.
..EDWARDS..06/30/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-021-025-079-083-085-091-109-302340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER DAWSON FALLON
PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT
SHERIDAN WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-302340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY
HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE
STARK WILLIAMS
$$
SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-105-302340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
PERKINS
$$
WYC011-045-302340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.