Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
EASTERN INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN VERMONT
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SARANAC LAKE
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AIRMASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21015.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 536 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY VT 011855Z - 020100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10S POU/POUGHKEEPSIE NY/ - 45NNE SLK/SARANAC LAKE NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /39NE SAX - 22NW PLB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21015.
LAT...LON 41477504 44977508 44977262 41477272
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 536 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 536
VALID 012230Z - 012340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
..HURLBUT..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-012340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-012340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-019-021-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-
095-111-113-115-012340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-012340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 536
VALID 012135Z - 012240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-012240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-012240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-019-021-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-
095-111-113-115-012240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-012240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 536
VALID 012035Z - 012140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..IMY..07/01/09
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-012140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-012140-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NYC001-019-021-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-
095-111-113-115-012140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER
ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
$$
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-025-027-012140-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
WINDHAM WINDSOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.