SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHEAST MONTANA
          WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
          NORTHEAST WYOMING
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
   700 PM MDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MILES CITY
   MONTANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS S-CENTRAL
   MT/N-CENTRAL WY AND THE BLACK HILLS OF SD LATE THIS MORNING.  THESE
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
   OVER THE PLAINS.  MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLUSTERS/SMALL
   LINES OF STORMS SPREADING ESEWD.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR
   WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28015.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHEAST MONTANA
          WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
          NORTHEAST WYOMING
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
   700 PM MDT.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   ISOLATED TORNADOES
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MILES CITY
   MONTANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS S-CENTRAL
   MT/N-CENTRAL WY AND THE BLACK HILLS OF SD LATE THIS MORNING.  THESE
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
   OVER THE PLAINS.  MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLUSTERS/SMALL
   LINES OF STORMS SPREADING ESEWD.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR
   WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28015.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHEAST MONTANA
          WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
          NORTHEAST WYOMING
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL
   700 PM MDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MILES CITY
   MONTANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS S-CENTRAL
   MT/N-CENTRAL WY AND THE BLACK HILLS OF SD LATE THIS MORNING.  THESE
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
   OVER THE PLAINS.  MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLUSTERS/SMALL
   LINES OF STORMS SPREADING ESEWD.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR
   WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28015.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   WOUS64 KWNS 021739
   WOU8
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-075-079-087-103-109-030100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.090702T1745Z-090703T0100Z/
   
   MT 
   .    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BIG HORN             CARTER              CUSTER              
   DAWSON               FALLON              GARFIELD            
   POWDER RIVER         PRAIRIE             ROSEBUD             
   TREASURE             WIBAUX              
   
   
   SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-030100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.090702T1745Z-090703T0100Z/
   
   SD 
   .    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BUTTE                CUSTER              HARDING             
   LAWRENCE             MEADE               PENNINGTON          
   
   
   WYC005-011-019-033-045-030100-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.090702T1745Z-090703T0100Z/
   
   WY 
   .    WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   CAMPBELL             CROOK               JOHNSON             
   SHERIDAN             WESTON              
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...GGW...
   
   
   

   SAW8 
   WW 538 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 021745Z - 030100Z
   AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   50SW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/ - 60NNW MLS/MILES CITY MT/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /42SW RAP - 54NNW MLS/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28015.
   
   LAT...LON 43520534 47220806 47220466 43520216
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU8.
   

Watch 538 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 538

VALID 022340Z - 030040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..PETERS..07/02/09

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...RIW...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC011-017-021-025-033-075-079-087-109-030040-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARTER		     CUSTER		 DAWSON 	     
FALLON		     GARFIELD		 POWDER RIVER	     
PRAIRIE 	     ROSEBUD		 WIBAUX 	     
$$


SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-103-105-113-137-030040-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT 	     BUTTE		 CUSTER 	     
FALL RIVER	     HAAKON		 HARDING	     
JACKSON 	     LAWRENCE		 MEADE		     
PENNINGTON	     PERKINS		 SHANNON	     
ZIEBACH 	     
$$


WYC005-011-019-033-045-030040-

WY 
.    WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMPBELL	     CROOK		 JOHNSON	     
SHERIDAN	     WESTON		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 538

VALID 022240Z - 022340Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..PETERS..07/02/09

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...RIW...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-075-079-087-103-109-022340-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIG HORN	     CARTER		 CUSTER 	     
DAWSON		     FALLON		 GARFIELD	     
POWDER RIVER	     PRAIRIE		 ROSEBUD	     
TREASURE	     WIBAUX		 
$$


SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-103-105-113-137-022340-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT 	     BUTTE		 CUSTER 	     
FALL RIVER	     HAAKON		 HARDING	     
JACKSON 	     LAWRENCE		 MEADE		     
PENNINGTON	     PERKINS		 SHANNON	     
ZIEBACH 	     
$$


WYC005-011-019-033-045-022340-

WY 
.    WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMPBELL	     CROOK		 JOHNSON	     
SHERIDAN	     WESTON		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 538

VALID 022145Z - 022240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..PETERS..07/02/09

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...RIW...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-075-079-087-103-109-022240-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIG HORN	     CARTER		 CUSTER 	     
DAWSON		     FALLON		 GARFIELD	     
POWDER RIVER	     PRAIRIE		 ROSEBUD	     
TREASURE	     WIBAUX		 
$$


SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-103-105-113-137-022240-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT 	     BUTTE		 CUSTER 	     
FALL RIVER	     HAAKON		 HARDING	     
JACKSON 	     LAWRENCE		 MEADE		     
PENNINGTON	     PERKINS		 SHANNON	     
ZIEBACH 	     
$$


WYC005-011-019-033-045-022240-

WY 
.    WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMPBELL	     CROOK		 JOHNSON	     
SHERIDAN	     WESTON		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 538

VALID 022050Z - 022140Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406

..CARBIN..07/02/09

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...RIW...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-075-079-087-103-109-022140-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIG HORN	     CARTER		 CUSTER 	     
DAWSON		     FALLON		 GARFIELD	     
POWDER RIVER	     PRAIRIE		 ROSEBUD	     
TREASURE	     WIBAUX		 
$$


SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-103-105-113-137-022140-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT 	     BUTTE		 CUSTER 	     
FALL RIVER	     HAAKON		 HARDING	     
JACKSON 	     LAWRENCE		 MEADE		     
PENNINGTON	     PERKINS		 SHANNON	     
ZIEBACH 	     
$$


WYC005-011-019-033-045-022140-

WY 
.    WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMPBELL	     CROOK		 JOHNSON	     
SHERIDAN	     WESTON		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.