Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
BURLINGTON COLORADO TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE NEAR LEE/THERMAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS HAS
BECOME VERY HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1200-2000 J
PER KG AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS. SOME ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL TO STORM
UPDRAFTS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE DEVELOP EWD FROM CO/ROCKIES. THUS...EXPECT
INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
WITH GREATER CHANCE FOR WIND AND SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27015.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 540 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 032000Z - 040300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50W ITR/BURLINGTON CO/ - 55ENE RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /55S AKO - 18NW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27015.
LAT...LON 40090320 40029787 38299787 38360320
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 540 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 540
VALID 040250Z - 040340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RSL
TO 20 NW RSL TO 25 SW HLC TO 50 SSW HLC TO 50 SSE GLD TO 35 NW
GCK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-040340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-053-063-065-071-105-109-137-153-167-179-181-193-
199-203-040340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLSWORTH GOVE GRAHAM
GREELEY LINCOLN LOGAN
NORTON RAWLINS RUSSELL
SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-040340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 540
VALID 040150Z - 040240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-040240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-101-105-109-135-137-153-165-
167-171-179-181-193-195-199-203-040240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN NESS
NORTON RAWLINS RUSH
RUSSELL SCOTT SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-040240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 540
VALID 040045Z - 040140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-040140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-101-105-109-135-137-153-165-
167-171-179-181-193-195-199-203-040140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN NESS
NORTON RAWLINS RUSH
RUSSELL SCOTT SHERIDAN
SHERMAN THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-040140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 540
VALID 040040Z - 040140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-040140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-
141-147-153-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-
040140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MITCHELL NESS NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-040140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 540
VALID 032330Z - 040040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/03/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-040040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-
141-147-153-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-
040040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MITCHELL NESS NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-040040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 540
VALID 032245Z - 032340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/03/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-032340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-
141-147-153-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-
032340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MITCHELL NESS NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-145-032340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 540
VALID 032140Z - 032240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/03/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...ICT...DDC...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 540
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-032240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON
$$
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-071-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-
141-147-153-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-199-203-
032240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL
LANE LINCOLN LOGAN
MITCHELL NESS NORTON
OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.