Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546...WW 547...
DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
IS SPREADING
ACROSS ECNTRL NM INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS THICKER CLOUD CANOPY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED...JUST OFF THE CAP ROCK FROM SE OF LBB TO WHEELER COUNTY.
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AOA 100F WITHIN VEERED...BUT MOIST LOW
LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS IT APPEARS STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29015.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 548 SEVERE TSTM TX 042010Z - 050100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 80S LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /51N CDS - 35NNE MAF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015.
LAT...LON 35229930 32500087 32500276 35220125
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 548 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 548
VALID 050035Z - 050140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE INK
TO 40 NW BGS TO 20 SE LBB TO 25 N PVW.
..HURLBUT..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-155-169-191-197-263-269-
275-345-415-433-483-050140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
FOARD GARZA HALL
HARDEMAN KENT KING
KNOX MOTLEY SCURRY
STONEWALL WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 548
VALID 042335Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-153-155-165-169-191-197-
263-269-275-303-305-345-415-433-445-483-050040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS DONLEY
FLOYD FOARD GAINES
GARZA HALL HARDEMAN
KENT KING KNOX
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY
SCURRY STONEWALL TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 548
VALID 042235Z - 042340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-153-155-165-169-191-197-
263-269-275-303-305-345-415-433-445-483-042340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS DONLEY
FLOYD FOARD GAINES
GARZA HALL HARDEMAN
KENT KING KNOX
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY
SCURRY STONEWALL TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 548
VALID 042145Z - 042240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-153-155-165-169-191-197-
263-269-275-303-305-345-415-433-445-483-042240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS DONLEY
FLOYD FOARD GAINES
GARZA HALL HARDEMAN
KENT KING KNOX
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY
SCURRY STONEWALL TERRY
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.