Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST OF
FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546...WW
547...WW 548...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD ESEWD ALONG SURFACE
FRONT WITH STRENGTHENING WLY LLJ FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 549 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 042255Z - 050400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
70W HOP/FORT CAMPBELL KY/ - 30ENE BNA/NASHVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /48NE DYR - 26ENE BNA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 37318873 36958618 35638618 36008873
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 549 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 549
VALID 050135Z - 050240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MKL
TO 30 W HOP TO 25 SSE BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437.
..PETERS..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC005-021-037-043-083-085-125-147-149-161-165-187-189-050240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 549
VALID 050040Z - 050140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC141-213-050140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN SIMPSON
$$
TNC005-021-037-043-083-085-125-147-149-161-165-187-189-050140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.