Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WEAKLY CONFLUENT OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER
KG AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J PER KG. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL BE PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER
WITH SOME STORM-SCALE TO MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS COLD
POOLS EXPAND AND MOVE ESEWD WITH 25-30KT MEAN-LAYER FLOW. DOWNBURST
WINDS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 550 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 051810Z - 060100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
80W SEM/SELMA AL/ - 20NE VDI/VIDALIA GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM EITHER SIDE /23E MEI - 54WNW SAV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
LAT...LON 33068836 33118213 31678212 31628833
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 550 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 550
VALID 060035Z - 060100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GZH TO
25 SW MGM TO 15 NNE TOI TO 5 SSW AUO TO 30 WNW LGC TO 25 N MCN TO
25 E MCN TO 30 NNE ABY TO 40 S CSG TO 20 N DHN.
WW 550 WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO 06/02-03Z ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION GIVEN
A CONTINUED POTENTIAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..PETERS..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-017-035-041-081-087-099-109-113-060100-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CONECUH CRENSHAW
LEE MACON MONROE
PIKE RUSSELL
$$
GAC021-053-079-093-145-153-171-193-197-199-207-215-225-231-249-
259-261-263-269-285-289-293-307-060100-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHATTAHOOCHEE CRAWFORD
DOOLY HARRIS HOUSTON
LAMAR MACON MARION
MERIWETHER MONROE MUSCOGEE
PEACH PIKE SCHLEY
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TAYLOR TROUP TWIGGS
UPSON WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 550
VALID 052335Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MEI TO
35 SW SEM TO 10 NW MGM TO 20 NE MGM TO 40 NNE MGM TO 40 SSW ANB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449.
..PETERS..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-017-025-031-035-037-041-045-047-051-067-081-085-
087-099-101-109-113-123-129-131-060040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER
CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE
CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW
DALE DALLAS ELMORE
HENRY LEE LOWNDES
MACON MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
GAC007-017-021-023-037-053-061-071-079-081-091-093-095-099-107-
125-145-153-155-163-167-171-175-177-193-197-199-201-205-207-209-
215-225-231-235-239-243-249-259-261-263-269-271-273-277-279-283-
285-287-289-293-303-307-309-315-319-321-060040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BIBB
BLECKLEY CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY COLQUITT CRAWFORD
CRISP DODGE DOOLY
DOUGHERTY EARLY EMANUEL
GLASCOCK HARRIS HOUSTON
IRWIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAMAR LAURENS LEE
MACON MARION MERIWETHER
MILLER MITCHELL MONROE
MONTGOMERY MUSCOGEE PEACH
PIKE PULASKI QUITMAN
RANDOLPH SCHLEY STEWART
SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR
TELFAIR TERRELL TIFT
TOOMBS TREUTLEN TROUP
TURNER TWIGGS UPSON
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WHEELER
WILCOX WILKINSON WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 550
VALID 052230Z - 052340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-031-035-037-041-045-047-
051-063-065-067-081-085-087-091-099-101-105-107-109-113-119-123-
125-129-131-052340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE GREENE HALE
HENRY LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
GAC021-023-053-061-079-081-091-093-107-125-145-153-163-167-175-
177-193-197-209-215-225-235-239-243-249-259-261-263-269-271-273-
279-283-289-293-303-307-309-315-319-052340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY CRAWFORD CRISP
DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL
GLASCOCK HARRIS HOUSTON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS
LEE MACON MARION
MONTGOMERY MUSCOGEE PEACH
PULASKI QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER
TALBOT TAYLOR TELFAIR
TERRELL TOOMBS TREUTLEN
TWIGGS UPSON WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX
WILKINSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 550
VALID 051935Z - 052040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-007-011-013-017-021-023-025-031-035-037-041-045-047-
051-063-065-067-081-085-087-091-099-101-105-107-109-113-119-123-
125-129-131-052040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
COFFEE CONECUH COOSA
CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS
ELMORE GREENE HALE
HENRY LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
GAC021-023-053-061-079-081-091-093-107-125-145-153-163-167-175-
177-193-197-209-215-225-235-239-243-249-259-261-263-269-271-273-
279-283-289-293-303-307-309-315-319-052040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY CRAWFORD CRISP
DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL
GLASCOCK HARRIS HOUSTON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS
LEE MACON MARION
MONTGOMERY MUSCOGEE PEACH
PULASKI QUITMAN RANDOLPH
SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER
TALBOT TAYLOR TELFAIR
TERRELL TOOMBS TREUTLEN
TWIGGS UPSON WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX
WILKINSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.