Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
TYLER TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550...WW 551...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG
INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ABOUT 35 SOUTHWEST OF TYR.
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THEY SHIFT ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE
STORMS TO NORTH OF POE. STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO...OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/NWRN LA IN VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 552 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 052200Z - 060300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30S TYR/TYLER TX/ - 45SSE SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /45SW GGG - 57SSE EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020.
LAT...LON 32779540 32729354 30979354 31049540
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 552 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 552
VALID 060225Z - 060300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LFK
TO 40 WNW POE TO 25 W IER.
WW 552 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453.
..PETERS..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC069-081-085-060300-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
$$
TXC373-403-060300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
POLK SABINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 552
VALID 060130Z - 060240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CLL
TO 40 NE LFK TO 45 E SHV.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC069-081-085-060240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
$$
TXC005-347-373-403-405-455-060240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES POLK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE TRINITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 552
VALID 060030Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE CRS
TO 30 NNE SHV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC015-017-031-069-081-085-060140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
$$
TXC005-073-203-225-347-365-373-401-403-405-419-455-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON
HOUSTON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TRINITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 552
VALID 052340Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S TYR TO
35 NE GGG.
..PETERS..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC015-017-031-069-081-085-060040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
$$
TXC005-073-183-203-225-347-365-373-401-403-405-419-423-455-
060040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON HOUSTON NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA POLK RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH TRINITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.