Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COLORADO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO TO 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI NEW
MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES...AND HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHERE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
COMBINED TO PUSH MIXED-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE.
WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK FROM THE NW...LOW-LEVEL
SELYS BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES/SPREADS SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 553 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 061920Z - 070200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NE COS/COLORADO SPRINGS CO/ - 75SW TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /39N PUB - 64N ROW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 38900291 34400294 34400611 38900626
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 553 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 553
VALID 070135Z - 070240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ONM TO
70 WSW TCC TO 40 NNW TCC TO 25 NW CAO TO 5 NNW COS TO 25 N COS.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-041-061-089-099-070240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
EL PASO KIOWA OTERO
PROWERS
$$
NMC005-009-011-021-027-037-041-059-070240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
HARDING LINCOLN QUAY
ROOSEVELT UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 553
VALID 070035Z - 070140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ONM TO
65 NE 4CR TO 30 SSW RTN TO 40 WSW PUB TO 40 NW COS.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-070140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC005-009-011-019-021-027-037-041-047-059-070140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 553
VALID 062330Z - 070040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ONM
TO 25 SSE ALS.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-061-071-089-099-101-070040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-049-055-057-059-
070040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
LINCOLN MORA QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 553
VALID 062235Z - 062340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-061-071-089-099-101-062340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC001-005-007-009-011-019-021-027-028-033-037-039-041-043-047-
049-055-057-059-061-062340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO CHAVES COLFAX
CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE
HARDING LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS
MORA QUAY RIO ARRIBA
ROOSEVELT SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL
SANTA FE TAOS TORRANCE
UNION VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 553
VALID 062140Z - 062240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-061-071-089-099-101-062240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC001-007-009-019-021-028-033-037-039-043-047-049-055-057-059-
061-062240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO COLFAX CURRY
GUADALUPE HARDING LOS ALAMOS
MORA QUAY RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 553
VALID 062040Z - 062140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-061-071-089-099-101-062140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC001-007-009-019-021-028-033-037-039-043-047-049-055-057-059-
061-062140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERNALILLO COLFAX CURRY
GUADALUPE HARDING LOS ALAMOS
MORA QUAY RIO ARRIBA
SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOS TORRANCE UNION
VALENCIA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.