Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTER COLORADO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF DOUGLAS WYOMING TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIMON
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...WW 554...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ATTM. NWWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT AN INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION -- AND EVENTUALLY PERHAPS SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 555 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 062005Z - 070200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE DGW/DOUGLAS WY/ - 45WSW LIC/LIMON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /76E DDY - 44N PUB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 42990295 39000294 39000593 42990612
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 555 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 555
VALID 070135Z - 070200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW COS
TO 35 ESE DEN TO 15 W AKO TO 25 W SNY TO 30 N BFF TO 40 NW CDR.
WW 555 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070200Z.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC039-073-075-121-070200-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELBERT LINCOLN LOGAN
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC013-033-045-123-070200-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES
MORRILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 555
VALID 070030Z - 070140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E GUC TO
5 SSW DEN TO 20 S TOR TO 65 ENE DGW TO 70 NNE DGW.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-075-087-121-123-070140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON
WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-070140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 555
VALID 062335Z - 070040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
070040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-070040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC009-015-021-027-031-070040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN LARAMIE
NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 555
VALID 062235Z - 062340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
062340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-062340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC009-015-021-027-031-062340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN LARAMIE
NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 555
VALID 062140Z - 062240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
062240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-062240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC009-015-021-027-031-062240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN LARAMIE
NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.