Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF ELKHART KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...WW 554...WW 555...
DISCUSSION...STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING SEWD THROUGH CO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40
KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...IF STORM OUTFLOWS CAN
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS...THE NWLY WINDS ALOFT WOULD BECOME MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33020.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 556 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 062225Z - 070400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5WNW EHA/ELKHART KS/ - 45S LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /49W LBL - 41S LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33020.
LAT...LON 37020090 33000077 33000286 37020306
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 556 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 556
VALID 070235Z - 070340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TCC
TO 20 WNW AMA TO 5 W EHA.
..PETERS..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-070340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-117-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-
195-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-369-375-381-393-421-437-
445-501-070340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GARZA
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
KENT LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOORE MOTLEY
OCHILTREE PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 556
VALID 070130Z - 070240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC025-139-070240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-169-179-189-
191-195-205-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-
393-421-437-445-501-070240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 556
VALID 070035Z - 070140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC025-139-070140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-169-179-189-
191-195-205-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-
393-421-437-445-501-070140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 556
VALID 062330Z - 070040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/06/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC025-139-070040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-169-179-189-
191-195-205-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-
393-421-437-445-501-070040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.